2021-12-23 Canadian COVID Case Update

This is an interesting one. The share of the vaccinated population continued to increase or remain level in every province — except Quebec, where it swiftly dropped. This coincides with their test positivity rate roughly doubling overnight including a 20% test positivity rate in Montreal.

Considering no changes, and the omicron trends around the world, I wonder if a correction is incoming after the holidays or if there is some foul play with the numbers. It would be an unprecedented change to occur overnight that could not easily be attributed to randomness. There are also less mechanisms for fast transmission in the unvaccinated as much of that cohort is children less than 12 or widely dispersed in the population. As school is out for the winter holiday, and most children are likely to have vaccinated parents who would test positive at or near the same time as their children, it seems suspect. In fact, even with a huge increase in the test positive rate and 3000 new cases, there are less cases in the fully vaccinated than yesterday.

Another note, I updated yesterday’s COVID update for Alberta as I undercounted the vaccinated share of cases by a bit less than 1.5%.

Alberta

Today there were:

• 1662 new cases

• 74 in the partially vaccinated cohort including 23 in the first 14 days

• 1310 in the fully vaccinated/booster cohort

• 278 in the unvaccinated cohort

• 0 deaths

That works out to 83.27% of cases in the vaccinated population. As of Monday, the province is 78.6% vaccinated.

Saskatchewan

Today there were:

• 194 new cases

• 3 in the partially vaccinated cohort

• 113 in the fully vaccinated/booster cohort

• 78 in the unvaccinated cohort

That works out to 59.79% of cases in the vaccinated population. As of Monday, the province is 79.4% vaccinated.

Manitoba

Today there were:

• 556 new cases

• 32 cases in the partially vaccinated cohort

• 440 cases in the fully vaccinated cohort

• 84 cases in the unvaccinated cohort

That works out to 84.89% of cases in the vaccinated population. Currently, the province is 80.8% vaccinated.

Ontario

Today there were:

• 5585 new cases

• 222 in the partially vaccinated cohort

• 4392 in the fully vaccinated/booster cohort

• 971 in the unvaccinated cohort

That works out to 82.61% of cases in the vaccinated population. As of Monday the province is 82.3% vaccinated.

Quebec

Today there were:

• 9397 new cases

• 238 in the partially vaccinated cohort

• 3917 in the fully vaccinated/booster cohort

• 5242 in the unvaccinated cohort

That works out to 44.22% of cases in the vaccinated population. As of Monday, the province is 84.1% vaccinated.