Prediction: There will be no hostile takeover of Twitter
Some intelligent analysts are about to be very wrong.
Today, Elon Musk made a formal offer to purchase Twitter at $54.20 per share or at a 38% premium over the closing price of common stock on April 1st. If Twitter were a normal company, such a premium would likely be sufficient to induce a takeover, which is why people like Dan Ives see this as a now or never, sell or find another buyer situation.
But Twitter is not a normal company.
Twitter is that annoying “social media influencer” who harasses business owners for free stuff in exchange for an “advertising spot”.
Twitter is the ultimate left-wing news wire which the corporate media draws from to create most of their content.
Twitter is a launching pad for bots that provide propaganda at a record-setting discount price.
Twitter is the handle of an information tap whose flow can be turned on and off with a mouse-click.
When the billionaire prince Alwaleed Tala says that Twitter has an intrinsic value higher than $54.20, he is not truly referencing the social media company’s growth prospects. He is referencing a different kind of intrinsic value altogether. The ability to shape western discourse, and, indeed, there is no offer that Musk could make which would satisfy the largest shareholders of Twitter. Musk just isn’t rich enough.
And the fact is that a hostile takeover will almost definitely require some of these large shareholders to sell. Does anyone believe multi-trillion dollar asset management firms like BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, etc or investment banks like Morgan Stanley are impressed by Musk’s offer? I do not.
Could I be wrong? Sure, but would you bet against me?
Maybe you're right, but rejecting Musk's offer would help expose BlackRock etc. as asset mis-managers.
I tend to agree. It almost seems like a publicity stunt. The Left never let’s go of their institutions once they bury their claws in. That doesn’t mean it’s actually worth more than what musk is will to pay though.