All cause mortality in the UK looks BAD for the vaccines

I was just parsing through the United Kingdom data for all cause mortality and thought I would share. But before I begin, I want to go over data limitations to get them out of the way.

At no point in their data does the Office of National Statistics in the UK make it clear what the denominators are for those without the vaccine, nor do they specify how they are estimating these numbers. Considering they have not updated their population numbers since 2020, it seems likely that up to 20-25%¹ of the population without a vaccine is missing from the denominators.

Funny enough, the NHS calculates their vaccination rates using the last updated ONS data. Here is what they say on the matter:

“As the ONS population estimates are based on the 2011 Census, they are subject to a degree of uncertainty, and do not reflect changes to the population since 2020. The ONS 2020 mid-year population estimates are likely to be an underestimate”

They also note that this predominantly happens in older age groups, and state that age groups below will appear lower as a result. That is true, but that effect will be felt all the way down the population estimates, and eventually be counteracted by more immigration in younger age groups.

Furthermore, it is possible that the vaccinated without a booster have more comorbidites than those without a vaccine, and those with a booster have less, which may explain some of the gaps. That said, this becomes troublesome as being unhealthy due to the vaccine would confound any adjustments even if we had real numbers. These are simply different populations.

Those are just the two, immediate, data limitations. So, here are some raw numbers:

95% of all deaths were in the vaccinated. Keep in mind, the elderly population is certainly more vaccinated; however, it would be hard to believe that 95% of that population is vaccinated given the enormous discrepancies I have found in previous data sets.

Stratified by age, all cause mortality looks like this:

The deaths with COVID are actually better for the vaccinated. Only 91.4% of all deaths with the virus were in the vaccinated which suggests that the vaccine does slightly reduce the chance of dying from the virus or it suggests the vaccine increases the chance of dying from other things. Either way, it is clear that any effectiveness, if it exists at all, would be extremely low. The vaccine remaining “highly effective” against COVID simply cannot occur when deaths are well over 90% in the vaccinated unless only, say, 1% of the elderly population were not vaccinated. As stated before, that is almost certainly not the case, and I would be amazed, given previous data sets I’ve analyzed using updated census data in both the USA and Canada, if the vaccinated populations are even above 90% in these age groups.

In any case, I really wanted to show you all the graph below because it is spectacularly disturbing. The numbers are derived from the data sets available here (Table 6 from the 1 January 2021 to March 31 2022 and 1 January 2021 to 31 January 2022 sets).

Yikes. First of all, notice the effect that the “first 21 days” has on mortality rates in the vaccinated. It appears and remains significant regardless of vaccine dose, which suggests the vaccine is directly killing huge amounts of people in that time period². Whether it is due to those people becoming more susceptible to respiratory viruses, or other causes like blood clots, heart attacks, and so on, it does not really matter. There is absolutely no defense for the vaccines here. The rate at which it is killing people even if we were to assume the denominators for those without the vaccine were correct is more than enough to make up for any efficacy gains from the vaccine especially if people are getting 1-3 doses every year.

If you are spending an extra 6-18% of the year at an enormously increased risk of dying after taking a vaccine, then the vaccine better be extremely effective, and the virus better be extremely deadly. More effective than these vaccines have ever been, and more deadly than this virus has ever been.

1. I just wrote this number on a napkin from previous years of population growth. It may be significantly more or less; though, I would suggest the elderly population without a vaccine would be the most heavily affected by a significant underestimate as we have seen in my previous, more precise, estimates of the populations in New York, Alberta, and Ontario.

2. I did another quick calculation; if those dying in the first 21 days were dying at the same rates as the unvaccinated in their age groups, there would be approximately 393 deaths among these groups; however, at the rate they were dying there were 721 deaths, or ~328 too many. Only 32 of those deaths were from COVID! There were actually less COVID deaths than one would expect, but almost twice as many non-COVID deaths.