Canadian Holiday LIES.

Negative VE, disabled case trackers, vaccination disasters.

Provinces are back from the holiday break and there is a lot of strange things happening in the data. This post will include data from December 22 - 29.

Alberta

Over the holiday period there were:

• 11190 new cases

• 479 in the partially vaccinated cohort including 94 in the first 14 days

• 9015 in the fully vaccinated/booster cohort

• 1696 in the unvaccinated cohort

• An ambiguous number of deaths*

That works out to 84.85% of cases in the vaccinated population. As of December 29, the province is 78.7% vaccinated.

For those that have been here awhile, you know I keep very close tabs on Alberta deaths. Well, the summary statistics say 9 deaths in the unvaccinated and 2 deaths in the vaccinated. But Alberta has been doing strange things with their data, such as counting all vaccinated under the age of 12 in their unvaccinated active cases, and re-adding vaccinated deaths (in the first 14 days of the vaccine) into the unvaccinated deaths of their summary statistics. One of the updates from today on their “deaths in the last 120 days” tracker showed that deaths in the vaccinated have gone up by 7 and deaths in the unvaccinated went up by 4. I am not sure which one is true here. I expect the latter to be true and an update to occur in their summary statistics, but I cannot verify either way.

Also, this graph is hilarious:

Compare it to Ontario’s down below. See something amiss? Partially vaccinated are only getting infected at a rate of 9 per 100k? That’s because they are counting a large amount of partially vaccinated in the unvaccinated cohort (all of those under 12). Over the 7 day period from 22 December to 29 December the rate per 100k in the vaccinated cohort was 280, 169 in the partially vaccinated, and 178 in the unvaccinated. Or, averaged out over 7 days: 40.1, 24.2, and 25.6 respectively.

As a measure of vaccine effectiveness, that means VE for 2 doses or more is -57% and VE for 1 dose is 5.5%.

Saskatchewan

Over the holidays there were:

• 1401 new cases

• 13 in the partially vaccinated cohort

• 692 in the fully vaccinated/booster cohort

• 696 in the unvaccinated cohort

That works out to 50.3% of cases in the vaccinated population. As of December 29, the province is 79.7% vaccinated. I have already been pretty clear on what I think about this data. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation noted this today:

When higher levels of virus are found in wastewater, it tends to suggest an increase in infections in the coming weeks. However, the U of S researchers said a spike in new cases is not guaranteed, due to the fact that much of the population is vaccinated.

And you know what, I believe them. The tagline of my Substack is “Data is downstream from culture”, and that means data is only collected when it has cultural significance. Collecting data on an ineffective vaccine is not kosher in today’s culture of vaccinephilia.

Manitoba

Manitoba has disabled the ability to see daily changes in cases by vaccination status. Now we can only infer cases based on the last “six weeks of data”. Needless to say, vaccinated cases were consistently rising and over 80% before they took the system offline. The change in tracking is obviously government suppression of data. Nothing more to say there.

Ontario

Over the holidays there were:

• 62718 new cases

• 2447 in the partially vaccinated cohort

• 50738 in the fully vaccinated/booster cohort

• 9533 in the unvaccinated cohort

That works out to 84.8% of cases in the vaccinated population. As of Monday the province is 82.9% vaccinated.

Well, this data seems the most normal. For now. There are still some in the first 14 days of their first dose being counted with the unvaccinated, but that is par for the course at this point. Again, we have negative VE in both the fully (-28.1%) and partially (-5.1%) vaccinated cohorts. It is incredibly interesting that the partially vaccinated seem to be doing better than the fully vaccinated everywhere. Anyone have a guess to why that is?

Quebec

I will just link my post earlier today on Quebec.

But yeah, the data is getting worse than ever as the vaccine fails more and more. I will be surprised if more provinces do not remove the ability to accurately track cases by vaccination status soon.