Good stuff! I wonder if you can make an estimate of what percent of unvaccinated have natural immunity. At some point (perhaps very soon with Omicron) the unvaccinated will all have natural immunity in which case there would potentially be almost zero Covid positive unvaccinated cases. Wouldn’t that be something?
I've thought about that but I think we would need clinical data. The problem is a lot of people with natural immunity decided (or were coerced) to get the vaccine after. In spring 2021, a survey found that vaccinated Americans were more than twice as likely to report having had a prior infection, so basically, the unvaccinated cohort was more likely not to have NI from the very beginning, and many of the cases counted as unvaccinated were in the first 14 days (12,000 in Alberta, for example). I'm not convinced that NI is high in the unvaccinated population at all. Essentially, trying to estimate NI is like trying to hit a moving target, and I don't think we'll hit 100% NI in any population anytime soon. Still, it's an interesting question, and I'll keep trying to think of a way to estimate it.
So similar to New York State... it's actually pretty amazing that 86% of cases are in the not fully vaccinated when all those under 12 haven't even had the chance to be fully vaccinated yet. That is seriously negative VE.
Good stuff! I wonder if you can make an estimate of what percent of unvaccinated have natural immunity. At some point (perhaps very soon with Omicron) the unvaccinated will all have natural immunity in which case there would potentially be almost zero Covid positive unvaccinated cases. Wouldn’t that be something?
I've thought about that but I think we would need clinical data. The problem is a lot of people with natural immunity decided (or were coerced) to get the vaccine after. In spring 2021, a survey found that vaccinated Americans were more than twice as likely to report having had a prior infection, so basically, the unvaccinated cohort was more likely not to have NI from the very beginning, and many of the cases counted as unvaccinated were in the first 14 days (12,000 in Alberta, for example). I'm not convinced that NI is high in the unvaccinated population at all. Essentially, trying to estimate NI is like trying to hit a moving target, and I don't think we'll hit 100% NI in any population anytime soon. Still, it's an interesting question, and I'll keep trying to think of a way to estimate it.
Thank you, Jestre, for laying out the data and for your analysis. You are providing a crucial service and I thank you from the bottom of my heart.
Hi Jestre, you can get Manitoba vax status from their bulletins now from here https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html . Here's an example from Dec 31 https://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?item=53100&posted=2021-12-31 . Note they lump partially vaxxed and unvaxxed as one lump total!
So similar to New York State... it's actually pretty amazing that 86% of cases are in the not fully vaccinated when all those under 12 haven't even had the chance to be fully vaccinated yet. That is seriously negative VE.