More denominator LIES: Alberta edition
Huge differences between fake death rates and true death rates.
Alberta, like Ontario, uses an assumption that the population has remained stagnant since 2020. As Alberta is less vaccinated than Ontario, this effect should be dampened; however, I wanted to do this post because it is one of the few areas of Alberta data manipulation that I have yet to cover. Given the slow blackout of Canadian data, this so be one of my last posts on Alberta… so…
Open Data Alberta provides population estimates in 3 scenarios: low growth, medium growth, and high growth. And, like the rest of Canada, their population is aging, so older populations are growing at a faster rate.
Just as a proof of Alberta using the 2020 Statistics Canada data, rather than their own population estimates, here is a screenshot from the Alberta vaccination page:
And, similarly, here is a screenshot from the Statistics Canada data.
And finally, here is Alberta’s death rate data.
Because most of the deaths are in those over 60, I will touch on those rates. In 2022, according to Alberta’s own population estimates, the populations should look like this (we will ignore the medium growth scenario to get a range instead):
High Growth scenario:
Total Population 60-69: 504,925
Difference from 2020: (504,925-474,319) = 30,606 more than reported.
Vaccination population 60-69: 453,999
Alberta reported unvaccinated population: 20,320
True unvaccinated population: 50,926
True death rate: (38/50,926)*100,000= 74.61 (185.73 reported)
Total Population 70-79: 287,840
Difference from 2020: (287,840-260,741) = 27,099 more than reported
Vaccination population 70-79: 253,360
Alberta reported unvaccinated population: 7,381
True unvaccinated population: 34,480
True death rate12: (68/34,480)*100,000 = 197.22 (914.47 reported)
Total Population 80+: 149,500
Difference from 2020: (149,500-140,658) = 8,842 more than reported.
Vaccination population 80+: 132,145
Alberta reported unvaccinated population: 8,513
True unvaccinated population: 17,355
True death rate: (103/17,355)*100,000 = 593.49 (1207.01 reported)
Low Growth scenario:
Total Population 60-69: 503,655
Difference from 2020: (503,655-474,319) = 29,336 more than reported.
Vaccination population 60-69: 453,999
Alberta reported unvaccinated population: 20,320
True unvaccinated population: 49,656
True death rate: (38/49,656)*100,000 = 76.53 (185.73 reported)
Total Population 70-79: 286,865
Difference from 2020: (286,865-260,741) = 26,124 more than reported
Vaccination population 70-79: 253,360
Alberta reported unvaccinated population: 7,381
True unvaccinated population: 33,505
True death rate: (68/33,505)*100,000 = 202.95 (914.47 reported)
Total Population 80+: 148,730
Difference from 2020: (148,730-140,658) = 8,072 more than reported
Vaccination population 80+: 132,145
Alberta reported unvaccinated population: 8,513
True unvaccinated population: 16,585
True death rate: (103/16,585)*100,000 = 621.04 (1207.01 reported)
In short, the death rates for Alberta by age is between:
74.61 to 76.53 for those aged 60-69;
197.22 to 202.95 for those aged 70-79; and,
593.49 to 621.04 for those aged 80+
But Alberta reports them as 185.73, 914.47, and 1207.01 respectively. And they see no problem with that? Yikes. This is actually one of the worst data manipulations out there.
Yes, the rates are still slightly higher than the vaccinated populations — but we are still talking about edge cases here. A small variation in the underlying demographics can have a huge impact. Considering about a third of the deaths counted as COVID here were actually from cancer… well… let’s just say I don’t trust Alberta to adjust/notice the difference.
This may actually be lower but I am operating under the assumption that no one in these age ranges has transitioned from unvaccinated to vaccinated in the last 120 days. Some surely have but I am too lazy to correct for it and it probably isn’t significantly different in any case.
It’s also unclear how many unvaccinated died when delta was still circulating, which the vaccine was somewhat effective against (albeit, way less effective than reported)
Besides errors in the population counts, there are lots of reasons to over-report vaccinations. Providers make money from it. Health officials, mayors, and Governors think large percentages make them look good. Nobody wants to explain expired doses. True believers want the unvaccinated to appear as a small, weak minority.
I can't think of any reasons for under-reporting and COVID is the pandemic of the noble lie.
Edit: My deep-blue US city reports >100% of 50+ year-olds having at least one dose, i.e. the number of unvaxxed is negative. Talk about cancel culture...
Great observation again. This is all they have left. "the unvaxxed are dying 8 times more than unvaxxed". Hmmm...right, that never seemed to make sense that 10% of the population could "overwhelm the hospitals". I am so sick of liars and people that take everything at face value!