Besides errors in the population counts, there are lots of reasons to over-report vaccinations. Providers make money from it. Health officials, mayors, and Governors think large percentages make them look good. Nobody wants to explain expired doses. True believers want the unvaccinated to appear as a small, weak minority.
I can't think of any reasons for under-reporting and COVID is the pandemic of the noble lie.
Edit: My deep-blue US city reports >100% of 50+ year-olds having at least one dose, i.e. the number of unvaxxed is negative. Talk about cancel culture...
I recall both the UK and the US admitted to overreported vaccinations. I'm not sure on the Canadian data though.... Canadians might just actually be this compliant. Generally, the least vaccinated groups I know are immigrants (especially ex-Soviet types) and even they started to get vaccinated at higher rates when the government's boot started to weigh on their neck.
Great observation again. This is all they have left. "the unvaxxed are dying 8 times more than unvaxxed". Hmmm...right, that never seemed to make sense that 10% of the population could "overwhelm the hospitals". I am so sick of liars and people that take everything at face value!
One thing that no one seems to be talking about is the plausibility that the uv might have other factors which are contributing to their rate of death. Factors beyond the binary assumption that deaths between these two groups are limited to the physical effects of Covid related illness. It doesn’t take much imagination to ask some other questions like, ‘what is the likelihood that the uv are seeking medical help later and less often than the v’ed?’ I am a rational mother of 4 with just one left at home and each and every time she sneezes I have an initial wave of fear which goes through me along with a thought like ‘will they take her away from me because I’m not v’ed’. I quickly recover but it’s there and I know I am not the only one living with these kinds of fears. Having to seek help in an environment which is hostile or even perceived to be hostile is going to have a lower uptake, this seems like a no brainer bThen how about we consider that the uv’d are more likely to have lost their jobs and ability to take care of their families. There is plenty of science which points towards the crushing effects this kind of stress puts on our immune system’s. I could go on but I imagine you understand my point. The fact that this conversation is one I have not witnessed even deep in the substacks of those fighting the good fight is another signal that we are at a place and time where the humanity of the unv’d isn't even being considered. Think about what these stats would look like if the unv’ed were not a demonized population!! The contrast would be even more shocking. The thing which is giving me hope is how many double v’d I know who are refusing the booster. I pray the tide will be turned by the sheer number of those who switch “sides” when a vaxx pass requires 3 shots.
Excellent observation. I've tried to stress this for a long time: the vaccinated and the unvaccinated are two distinct populations. Any comparison between them when you get down to the bare bones is silly. There are differences in health seeking behavior, risk seeking behavior, underlying conditions, and plausibly, as you mentioned, differences in stress and anxiety levels caused by the mandates themselves. There are also quite likely differences in practitioner behavior. Ie., a doctor who knows a patient is unvaccinated may treat them differently, for better or worse, based on that fact. Really, everything under the sun is different.
While this is in the back of my mind for every post, I do make the comparisons sometimes without mentioning the differences either because I forget or for posts that are really just corrections to health authority data representation. I do think that pointing out these differences is the most important and most neglected fact from the last couple years. Seasoned statisticians to their shame have completely ignored it, but there is really no good statistical method to control for these differences due to their very nature.
Did you see these stats Kirkey cites from Public Health Canada in her latest propaganda piece? My head is spinning: "Public Health Agency of Canada data show that, from Feb. 21 to March 20, compared to people with two doses of vaccine, unvaccinated COVID cases were four times more likely to be hospitalized, and five times more likely to die. Compared to the boosted, the unvaccinated were nine times more likely to be hospitalized and 16 times more likely to die during the same month-long period." 16X the death rate? What?
Funny enough... Ontario just switched to the 2020 data, they were using the 2021 data until December. Alberta at least was not that brazen and it could be legacy data... I would believe that if they didn't get rid of every bit of data they publish as soon as we show how badly the data makes the vaccines look
Just think how effective the vaccines will be if we use 2016 population data ;)
I do think it’s really important that you’re calling them out on this, I haven’t seen anyone else discuss this topic and as you demonstrate it has a significant effect on the numbers.
As always, thanks Jestre for your analysis. When you look at how this pandemic has progressed since the vaccines were started, I simply cannot believe the naivety of the masses in believing government stats unless they are somehow justifying their decision to get jabbed.
Surprisingly, the partially vaccinated are not being counted with the unvaccinated here. Notwithstanding any that died in the first 14 days. That number would not be substantial at this point (likely less than 5) and we no longer observe it so I won't speculate too much.
Table 9. They don't explicitly report them but they report the total and let us do the math (presumably to make the vaccines look better.. Out of sight out of mind?)
Over this period there were 11 deaths in those 80+, 8 in 70-79, and 4 in those 60-69.
Interestingly, death rates in single doses are higher in those 70+ and lower in those 60-69... Differences in populations? Or, possibly, the unvaccinated absorbing a few deaths from those that got the single dose late? It's hard to say what is going on there...
Besides errors in the population counts, there are lots of reasons to over-report vaccinations. Providers make money from it. Health officials, mayors, and Governors think large percentages make them look good. Nobody wants to explain expired doses. True believers want the unvaccinated to appear as a small, weak minority.
I can't think of any reasons for under-reporting and COVID is the pandemic of the noble lie.
Edit: My deep-blue US city reports >100% of 50+ year-olds having at least one dose, i.e. the number of unvaxxed is negative. Talk about cancel culture...
I recall both the UK and the US admitted to overreported vaccinations. I'm not sure on the Canadian data though.... Canadians might just actually be this compliant. Generally, the least vaccinated groups I know are immigrants (especially ex-Soviet types) and even they started to get vaccinated at higher rates when the government's boot started to weigh on their neck.
Great observation again. This is all they have left. "the unvaxxed are dying 8 times more than unvaxxed". Hmmm...right, that never seemed to make sense that 10% of the population could "overwhelm the hospitals". I am so sick of liars and people that take everything at face value!
One thing that no one seems to be talking about is the plausibility that the uv might have other factors which are contributing to their rate of death. Factors beyond the binary assumption that deaths between these two groups are limited to the physical effects of Covid related illness. It doesn’t take much imagination to ask some other questions like, ‘what is the likelihood that the uv are seeking medical help later and less often than the v’ed?’ I am a rational mother of 4 with just one left at home and each and every time she sneezes I have an initial wave of fear which goes through me along with a thought like ‘will they take her away from me because I’m not v’ed’. I quickly recover but it’s there and I know I am not the only one living with these kinds of fears. Having to seek help in an environment which is hostile or even perceived to be hostile is going to have a lower uptake, this seems like a no brainer bThen how about we consider that the uv’d are more likely to have lost their jobs and ability to take care of their families. There is plenty of science which points towards the crushing effects this kind of stress puts on our immune system’s. I could go on but I imagine you understand my point. The fact that this conversation is one I have not witnessed even deep in the substacks of those fighting the good fight is another signal that we are at a place and time where the humanity of the unv’d isn't even being considered. Think about what these stats would look like if the unv’ed were not a demonized population!! The contrast would be even more shocking. The thing which is giving me hope is how many double v’d I know who are refusing the booster. I pray the tide will be turned by the sheer number of those who switch “sides” when a vaxx pass requires 3 shots.
Excellent observation. I've tried to stress this for a long time: the vaccinated and the unvaccinated are two distinct populations. Any comparison between them when you get down to the bare bones is silly. There are differences in health seeking behavior, risk seeking behavior, underlying conditions, and plausibly, as you mentioned, differences in stress and anxiety levels caused by the mandates themselves. There are also quite likely differences in practitioner behavior. Ie., a doctor who knows a patient is unvaccinated may treat them differently, for better or worse, based on that fact. Really, everything under the sun is different.
While this is in the back of my mind for every post, I do make the comparisons sometimes without mentioning the differences either because I forget or for posts that are really just corrections to health authority data representation. I do think that pointing out these differences is the most important and most neglected fact from the last couple years. Seasoned statisticians to their shame have completely ignored it, but there is really no good statistical method to control for these differences due to their very nature.
Did you see these stats Kirkey cites from Public Health Canada in her latest propaganda piece? My head is spinning: "Public Health Agency of Canada data show that, from Feb. 21 to March 20, compared to people with two doses of vaccine, unvaccinated COVID cases were four times more likely to be hospitalized, and five times more likely to die. Compared to the boosted, the unvaccinated were nine times more likely to be hospitalized and 16 times more likely to die during the same month-long period." 16X the death rate? What?
https://nationalpost.com/health/existing-covid-vaccines-wont-deliver-herd-immunity-but-that-doesnt-mean-theyre-failing
Comical.
There’s no reason to be using statscan 2020 data at this point - other than to brazenly manipulate vaccination statistics.
The population data from the 2021 census has been released.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/index-eng.cfm
Funny enough... Ontario just switched to the 2020 data, they were using the 2021 data until December. Alberta at least was not that brazen and it could be legacy data... I would believe that if they didn't get rid of every bit of data they publish as soon as we show how badly the data makes the vaccines look
lol, oh wow!
Just think how effective the vaccines will be if we use 2016 population data ;)
I do think it’s really important that you’re calling them out on this, I haven’t seen anyone else discuss this topic and as you demonstrate it has a significant effect on the numbers.
As always, thanks Jestre for your analysis. When you look at how this pandemic has progressed since the vaccines were started, I simply cannot believe the naivety of the masses in believing government stats unless they are somehow justifying their decision to get jabbed.
Surprisingly, the partially vaccinated are not being counted with the unvaccinated here. Notwithstanding any that died in the first 14 days. That number would not be substantial at this point (likely less than 5) and we no longer observe it so I won't speculate too much.
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#vaccine-outcomes
Table 9. They don't explicitly report them but they report the total and let us do the math (presumably to make the vaccines look better.. Out of sight out of mind?)
Over this period there were 11 deaths in those 80+, 8 in 70-79, and 4 in those 60-69.
Interestingly, death rates in single doses are higher in those 70+ and lower in those 60-69... Differences in populations? Or, possibly, the unvaccinated absorbing a few deaths from those that got the single dose late? It's hard to say what is going on there...