The study out of the University of California, Santa Cruz has an interesting structure, if nothing else. The researchers use an assumption of a 40-fold reduction in neutralizing antibody titers against omicron. I have only seen the South African study claiming a 40-fold reduction in neutralizing antibody titers, which had more researchers than research participants, so I am not sure how strong this assumption will turn out to be. That said, the short interval where the vaccine is effective seems to rely heavily on antibody titers unlike natural immunity, say, which has a wider range of tools to combat the virus.
And important to note about COVAXIN trial-- if it contributed or caused the worst outbreak on earth of Covid yet, then their "restored vaccine effectiveness" is equivalent to measuring burn marks from initial shockwave pilots dropping a nuke faced vs those who were incinerated.
Covaxin had within the first 28 days 27 cases and the placebo had 15. This is 73% increase in cases within 28 days before second dose. That's more than their overall efficacy.
Great point! Even once cumulative virus risk hits the breakeven point the initial cases have created more cases... Essentially it cascades through the population.
yes, the most crucial point. We don't get to test the relative risk of AIDS by spreading HIV in the population through vaccination (STEP/Phambilli trials which were stopped) and waiting for the vaccinated to be dead when we start counting. It will give 100% VE while still promoting explosive epidemic.
And important to note about COVAXIN trial-- if it contributed or caused the worst outbreak on earth of Covid yet, then their "restored vaccine effectiveness" is equivalent to measuring burn marks from initial shockwave pilots dropping a nuke faced vs those who were incinerated.
Covaxin had within the first 28 days 27 cases and the placebo had 15. This is 73% increase in cases within 28 days before second dose. That's more than their overall efficacy.
Great point! Even once cumulative virus risk hits the breakeven point the initial cases have created more cases... Essentially it cascades through the population.
yes, the most crucial point. We don't get to test the relative risk of AIDS by spreading HIV in the population through vaccination (STEP/Phambilli trials which were stopped) and waiting for the vaccinated to be dead when we start counting. It will give 100% VE while still promoting explosive epidemic.
This one? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.10.21267594v1.full.pdf
Yep. Sorry you had to go searching, I seem to have neglected the link!